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Why Injury Claims Don't Always Reflect Real MSD Risk

February 3, 2026
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Key Takeaway
Claims data is useful, but it doesn’t always reflect current risk. Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) often build up slowly and show up late, sometimes long after a worker’s already been hurt. That’s why relying only on lagging indicators can leave EHS pros flat-footed. Tools that reveal task-level risk, like AI enabled video assessments, can close the gap.

Why does the safety data look better than the floor feels?


Because most companies only track injuries after they’ve already happened. OSHA calls this the difference between lagging and leading indicators. Lagging indicators capture what’s gone wrong, like claims, recordables, days away from work. They’re backward-looking by design.

Leading indicators do the opposite. They focus on conditions that could lead to injuries but haven’t yet. Musculoskeletal disorders are a good example. They often start with fatigue, awkward movements, or repetitive stress. But those early warning signs don’t show up in a claim until they cross a certain line, like time off, restricted duty, or medical treatment.


So your OSHA log might look fine on paper, even while your crew is pushing through pain. To see why that happens, it helps to understand exactly what OSHA considers recordable.

Why does MSD risk often go unreported?


Because most reporting systems only track injuries that cross a certain threshold. According to OSHA 1904.7, an injury becomes recordable when it results in time off, restricted duty, or medical treatment beyond first aid. That leaves out early-stage musculoskeletal disorders, the kind where workers are sore, stiff, or quietly changing how they move just to get through the day.

Even if those workers are at high risk, they don’t “count” until something breaks. This is especially common in manual jobs where working through pain is the norm. And by the time a claim does appear, it usually reflects a problem that’s been building for weeks or months.

To make things more complicated, even valid injuries sometimes don’t make it into the system. OSHA audits and BLS research have both found that underreporting is a widespread issue. Employers may miss or misclassify cases, not always on purpose, but often due to unclear guidance or inconsistent processes.

So when someone says, “Our claims are down,” the next question should be: is risk actually going down, or are we just seeing less of it on paper? That’s why it’s time to rethink how we capture exposure in the first place, and what tools can bring it into focus.

How can AI video assessments help EHS teams act before injuries happen?


AI-powered video assessments give safety teams a faster, more accurate way to spot ergonomic risk, well before it turns into a claim.

Using just a smartphone, computer vision technology can analyze how workers move during real tasks. The software flags common risk factors like awkward postures, high-force lifts, and repetitive motions. No wearables or sensors are needed, just a quick video.

From there, ergonomic platforms apply industry-standard tools like RULA, REBA, and the NIOSH Lifting Equation to calculate task-level risk scores. This turns general concerns into measurable data, such as identifying that 50% of lifts exceed safe thresholds.

Unlike manual assessments, which are often reactive and time-consuming, AI assessments can be done proactively during a walk-through. You can spot issues in minutes and back up what you see with objective data. Because the system is scalable, you can assess dozens of tasks across multiple sites without additional staff.


This shift from lagging to leading indicators makes ergonomics more actionable. It moves safety programs from “we’ll address it later” to “we can fix it now”, and that’s changing how teams define success.

Why are leading indicators now expected in safety programs?


The role of safety programs has shifted. It’s no longer enough to document what went wrong after the fact. Today, there’s growing pressure, from regulators, standards bodies, and internal leadership, to prevent injuries before they happen.

OSHA encourages the use of proactive safety metrics, and NIOSH calls them “preventive and predictive.” International standards like ISO 45004 and ASSP/ISO TR 45004:2024 also recommend using real-time data to monitor workplace conditions, rather than relying solely on incident reports.

That means programs built only on lagging indicators, like claims or lost-time cases, may not hold up under audit, during funding reviews, or in strategy discussions. Especially when more advanced, accessible tools now exist to track exposure and surface hidden risk.

If you're wondering how to put those proactive metrics into practice without adding more manual work, that's where TuMeke can make a real difference.

How does TuMeke help you see and reduce ergonomic risk?


TuMeke
helps you spot risk before it becomes injury, quickly, clearly, and without the need for wearables or complex setups. With just a smartphone video, the platform analyzes how workers move during real tasks and flags the hidden drivers of musculoskeletal strain, awkward postures, high-force lifts, repetitive motions. Within minutes, you’ll know exactly where the risk is, what’s causing it, and how to fix it.

With TuMeke you can:

  • Identify ergonomic risks task by task, across teams and locations
  • Understand the root causes behind strain and fatigue
  • Prioritize improvements based on measurable risk scores
  • Standardize best practices across shifts, lines, or sites
  • Train workers with targeted, data-backed guidance

Whether you're in EHS, HR, or operations, TuMeke makes it easier to take action before injuries happen, and to back those actions with real evidence. If your people are feeling the strain but your metrics say everything's fine, it’s time to trust what you see, not just what gets logged.

See what the numbers miss. Schedule your personalized TuMeke demo today.

FAQ

How can safety teams prove risk exists when claims are low?

They can use movement-level assessments to show exposure before claims occur. TuMeke’s AI flags ergonomic risks from simple task videos, providing hard data EHS teams can show leadership.

What are common signs of MSD risk that don't get recorded?

Signs include repeated soreness, awkward reaching, and workers modifying how they move to avoid pain. These often go unreported unless they result in time off or medical treatment.

Why is relying only on OSHA recordables risky for MSD tracking?

OSHA logs capture injuries that meet strict thresholds. But most MSDs build gradually. By the time they’re recordable, the damage is already done and others may be at risk too.

What does “working hurt” mean in an ergonomic safety context?

“Working hurt” means workers stay on the job while in discomfort or pain, often hiding early signs of injury. This can mask growing risk that won’t show up in official data until it’s severe.

How often should task-level ergonomic assessments be done?

Ideally, assessments should be ongoing. With tools like TuMeke, teams can evaluate tasks in minutes and repeat assessments anytime work changes, without needing extra staff or complex setups.

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